Quantifying Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity to Initial Condition and Climate Prediction Skill

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

Diagnosing CFS2 forecast skill using empirical models of climate prediction and predictability from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal scales

We propose to employ a seamless empirical dynamical modeling approach to construct a state-of-the-art benchmark probabilistic forecast system and to evaluate factors impacting predictability at forecast lead times ranging from weeks to decades in the CFS2 forecast system, including climate drift. The model used, a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed simultaneous and time-lag correl...

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

Skill and uncertainty in climate models

Analyses of skill are widely used for assessing weather predictions, but the time scale and lack of validation data mean that it is not generally possible to investigate the predictive skill of today’s climate models on the multidecadal time scale. The predictions made with early climate models can, however, be analyzed, and here we show that one such forecast did have skill. It seems reasonabl...